NEW STUDY: CATASTROPHIC SATELLITE COLLISIONS AND OUTAGES DRAMATICALLY MORE LIKELY.

As long predicted by The Balance Group, research has now further validated that catastrophic satellite collisions and outages are now much more likely due to the lack of planning around the rapidly deploying satellite mega constellations.  A new study by astrophysics researchers from Princeton University, U. of British Columbia, and U. of Regina has concluded that a CRASH CLOCK is currently needed to measure the rapidly accelerating risk: "[O]ur calculations show the CRASH Clock is currently 2.8 days, which suggests there is now little time to recover from a wide-spread disruptive event, such as a solar storm. This is in stark contrast to the pre-mega-constellation era: in 2018, the CRASH Clock was 121 days."  

​Close approaches between satellites now happen every 22 seconds. For Starlink the incidence is every 11 minutes. Each satellite performs dozens of collision-avoidance maneuvers per year, avoiding both other satellites, and space junk, including bolts, parts and other material from degraded satellites, rocket bodies, and associated debris.

The 2024 “Gannon Storm” forced over half of all satellites in low Earth orbit to burn fuel for emergency maneuvers. Scientists argue it is inevitable that sooner or later a much larger solar storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 — the strongest solar storm on record-- could blind satellite communications for days, and lead to catastrophic, cascading collisions. Once real-time control is lost due to a communications outage, thousands of satellites would circulate at 17,000 miles an hour without sight or steering. That leads quite possibly to the Kessler syndrome: when a runaway domino effect of orbital collisions turns Earth’s orbit into a massive debris field, thus making launching into space to restore satellites nearly impossible.

"The urgent need for regulation of satellite mega constellations is more imperative than ever," said Balance Group's COO, Joseph Sandri.

See the study at: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2512.09643


​Sources: Princeton University; University of British Columbia; University of Regina; NASA; The Balance Group;  The Urgent Need for Regulation of Satellite Mega-constellations in Outer Space (Springer: by Scott Millwood): 2023; From Quarks to Quasars (Dec. 29, 2025; Facebook).

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